Editor’s Note
The mornings gave it away first. Somewhere in the last couple of weeks the air changed, and now it is cool enough at both ends of the day that you can feel fall sitting just offstage. I love this season and I have no interest in rushing it. But every year that first cool morning lands the same way for me professionally, as a quiet reminder that year end is closer than the calendar makes it feel.
On my end, the business side of extension season is nearly wrapped. I have a handful of returns left to close out before next Tuesday, and if yours is one of them it is already in final review, so you will hear from me this week. From there my attention turns to personal extensions ahead of October 15. I mention next Tuesday mostly because it falls exactly one week from the day this lands in your inbox, which makes it the first real marker of the season.
What comes after it is the part I actually look forward to. Early in the fourth quarter I sit down with my annual planning clients and project what the year is going to look like before it closes. Knowing your number in the fall, while there is still runway, is a completely different experience than finding it out in April, when the only thing left to do is write the check. Fall is not the wind down. It is when the plan we have been building all year actually gets executed.
Matt Curtin, CPA
ON THE CALENDAR
Upcoming Dates to Know
September 15: Q3 Estimated Payment and Extended Business Returns.
Two things land on the same Tuesday. Your third quarter estimated tax payment is due, and so is any partnership or S-corp return we placed on extension back in March. If you have a return in that second group, it is already handled on my end and you will hear from me this week if you have not already. On the estimated payment side, the one thing worth doing is a gut check. If anything has shifted materially in your income or your business your tax payments might need to change compared to the prior quarter.
October 15: Extended Individual Return Deadline.
If we put your personal return on extension in April, this is the real deadline, and it is where my attention goes the moment the business returns are out the door. The point of an extension was always the time it bought for doing the work carefully. The trap is treating early October like it is still summer.
Early Fourth Quarter: Year End Projections.
This is my favorite stretch of the year. As the fourth quarter opens, I model out where income, withholding, and estimated payments are going to land for clients on annual planning engagements, so you know the number while there is still time to influence it. Almost everything worth doing before December 31 depends on knowing that number first.
MARKET MINUTE
What’s Happening and What It Means for You
August was the fifth consecutive winning month for the market. The S&P 500 finished at 7,686, up 2.6%, the Dow at 53,186, up 1.3%, and the Nasdaq led at 26,371, up 3.9%. Technology did nearly all of the lifting, gaining 6.3% as a sector and accounting for more than three quarters of the S&P's entire monthly return. The final days gave some of it back after U.S. strikes on Iran pushed crude toward $86 and gas above $4.00 a gallon. Then came the part worth noticing. Last month I wrote that a soft July jobs report had markets convinced a September rate cut was coming. Friday's August report flipped that. Employers added 162,000 jobs against expectations of roughly 56,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000, turning July's reported loss into a gain. Odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15 and 16 meeting jumped to about 60% from about 49% the day before.
I raise that less for the rate call than for how fast the consensus moved. Six weeks ago the obvious answer was a cut. Today it leans the other way, and it will likely read differently again by the October issue. That is why I do not build tax plans on forecasts. What is more concrete is this: technology has rebounded hard since spring, so vested shares and unexercised options are worth meaningfully more today than in April, and for a number of you that turns a someday decision into a this year decision. Whether to sell is a portfolio question and belongs with your financial advisor. What it costs you is a tax question, and that one is mine. If a sale is anywhere on your horizon, the projection above is what tells you the number before you act rather than after.
THE PLANNING ANGLE
Your Situation Is Specific
There is no single move that fits everyone this month, which is rather the point. Below is the one thing I would most want you thinking about right now, depending on where your income comes from. Read the one that fits, or read both.
FOR EQUITY COMP PROFESSIONALS
What a Short Term Rental Actually Asks of You
If you follow anything tax or finance adjacent online, you have seen the short term rental pitch. High W-2 income, buy a rental, cost segregation study, enormous first year deduction, problem solved. I have a complicated relationship with that content. Not because the strategy is wrong, because it is real and it is one of the more powerful tools in the code, but because the version that travels well online is stripped of everything that determines whether it works.
It is the same shape as the advice business owners have been handed every December for thirty years. You have a big tax bill, go buy a truck. That has never been good advice. A tax bill is not a reason to spend money. It can be a reason to have a planful conversation about money you were already planning to spend, which is a completely different sentence.
So here is the real version, both halves of it.
Why it draws so much attention if your income comes from a W-2. When most of your compensation arrives as salary, bonus, and equity, your planning levers are finite, and pulling them well is a real piece of what I do all year. Getting the retirement plan actually maxed, funding the HSA, being deliberate about charitable giving, sequencing your equity events with your other income. That work is worth genuine money and most people leave some of it on the table. But it is a shorter list than a business owner's, and once you have worked through it, you have worked through it. That is why a strategy that appears to open a new door gets the attention this one does.
Why it works. Losses from rental real estate are normally passive, meaning they offset other passive income rather than your salary. The familiar exception allowing up to $25,000 of rental losses is gone entirely by $150,000 of modified AGI, so most people asking me about this do not qualify for it anyway. Short term rentals sit outside that framework. When the average guest stay across the year is seven days or less, the activity is not a rental activity for passive loss purposes at all. Clear one more hurdle and the losses become non-passive, which means they can offset wages directly.
That hurdle is material participation, and it is the whole ballgame. You have to actually be running the property. The tests that come up most often are more than 500 hours in the year, or at least 100 hours where you participated more than any other individual, including any property manager you pay. On a joint return either spouse's hours count, which in practice is what makes this workable for a lot of couples. What counts is operating work: guest communication, pricing, coordinating turnovers, handling repairs, supervising contractors. Reviewing the statements and watching the numbers is investor work and does not count. And it needs a contemporaneous log, not a reconstruction assembled the following March.
Where the large number comes from. With 100% bonus depreciation now permanent for property acquired and placed in service after January 19, 2025, a cost segregation study can reclassify the qualifying components inside a property and pull a substantial deduction into year one. Worth saying plainly: that depreciation was always going to be yours. Bonus accelerates it, it does not conjure it. Much of what you are getting is timing, and it comes back around at sale through a lower basis.
Where these fall apart. Three break it more often than everything else combined.
The seven day average is arithmetic, not a vibe. It is calculated from your actual bookings across the year. Drift above seven days and you land back in rental territory, where the only remaining door is real estate professional status, which a person with a demanding full time job essentially cannot walk through.
Personal use is the quiet killer. Use the property yourself, or let family use it, beyond a fairly tight limit relative to the days you rent it out, and it is treated as a home. Deductions get restricted and the loss you were counting on carries forward instead of landing on this year's return. The "we will use it a few weeks each summer" plan is frequently what breaks the math.
The hours have to be yours. Hire a full service property manager who out-works you and the 100 hour test fails on the spot.
Several more rules sit behind those and decide how much of a loss actually reaches your return in a given year. I will walk through all of it on the blog in a couple of weeks.
Now the part I most want to land. I have clients doing this well. They actively manage multiple short term rentals on top of demanding day jobs, and they are good at it. Here is what they have in common: they wanted the business. They wanted to own real estate, they were willing to run it, and the very large first year tax benefit showed up as a side effect of a decision they had already made for other reasons. That is the tell. Every version of this that has gone badly started from the other end, with the tax bill first and the business figured out later.
Because that is what you are actually signing up for. Not a deduction. A small business, with guests, bookings, cleaners, repairs, reviews, insurance, local licensing and lodging tax rules, and a bad night at eleven o'clock, layered on top of a job that is probably already demanding. None of that makes it a bad idea. It makes it a real one.
So the screen I use is short. Do you want to own and operate this property, at this price, in this market, if the tax code changed tomorrow? Can you or your spouse realistically log the hours, this year and every year after? Are you at peace with the fact that much of the benefit is timing? If those are yes, this is worth modeling carefully and I enjoy that work quite a bit. If any of them is a maybe, I would rather tell you now than after the closing.
FOR ENTREPRENEURS
Bookkeeping Was Never Really About Taxes
I want to make a case for something that sounds like housekeeping and is not. Before I do, let me say the part I mean most. If your books are behind, that is not a mark against you and it is absolutely not a reason to avoid calling me. Running a small business is relentless, and bookkeeping is the task that loses every fight for your attention because nothing visibly breaks when you skip it. I have never once thought less of a client for being behind. If anything, being behind is an argument for working together, not against it.
Here is why I keep bringing it up anyway.
Bookkeeping was not invented for taxes. It was invented so the person running a business could see where the money was actually going. The tax return is a byproduct of it, not the purpose of it. When the books get assembled once a year in a spring scramble, they still produce a return, but they produce it from data that is six or eight months old. You find out in April what was true in September. That is history. It is not something you can act on.
Now compare that with a monthly rhythm. When the books close shortly after each month ends, you learn in month two that a margin slipped instead of month eleven. You can see which service line is quietly losing money while there is still most of a year to respond. You can answer the questions that actually matter, whether you can afford the hire, whether your pricing is holding, whether the equipment makes sense, with something better than your gut and your bank balance. The difference in growth I see between owners who watch current financials and owners who wait for year end is not subtle, and I do not think it is about discipline or talent. They are making decisions with better information, more often, and that compounds.
It is also what makes the planning work possible. That fourth quarter projection is only as good as the books behind it. Fresh books and I can tell you what you will owe while there is still time to influence it. Stale books and it is a guess.
Worth saying clearly, because it changes how you should read all of this: I do not do bookkeeping. It is not a service I offer and it never has been. I work alongside a handful of bookkeepers I trust completely, and I have no stake whatsoever in whether you hire one. I am making this case because I watch what it does for people, not because there is anything in it for me.
There are two good paths and I genuinely like both. Hire a professional bookkeeper, which for most owners is the highest return outsourcing decision on the table and costs less than people assume. Or carve out a few hours a month and do it yourself, consistently, until it stops being a decision and becomes a habit. I have real respect for the owners who protect that time when their calendar is already overcommitted. They are not doing it for their CPA. They are doing it because you cannot steer what you cannot see.
If you are behind and you would rather not spend the fall untangling last winter, just tell me. Getting you pointed to the right person is one of the easier problems on my desk.
QUICK HITS
A Few Other Things Worth Knowing
The Massachusetts surtax threshold for 2026 is $1,107,750. Income above that gets an extra 4% on top of the state's 5% rate. It applies to taxable income for the year, not just salary, so a single large event like a stock sale, a business sale, or a big real estate gain can push a normally comfortable year over the line for one year only. If a liquidity event is on your radar, this belongs in the math before you pull the trigger, not after.
Charitable giving works differently starting this year. Three changes take effect in 2026. Non-itemizers can finally deduct up to $1,000 of cash gifts, or $2,000 married filing jointly. Itemizers now face a floor, and only gifts above 0.5% of your AGI count at all. And for taxpayers in the top bracket, the value of itemized deductions is capped at 35% rather than the full 37%. If you give regularly, the timing and structure of this year's giving deserve a look before December.
FROM MY DESK
Let's Keep the Conversation Going
One more thought about the season. Fall is the only stretch of the year where we have both good information and real time to act on it. Spring is too early to know anything and December is too late to do much about it.
That is really the shape of my whole year. Returns get finished, then June and July is when we sit down for the holistic review and talk through what is genuinely on your list, whether that is equipment, a hire, a retirement plan, or a property. The fourth quarter is when we project the numbers and execute against what we decided back in the summer. Not because a tax bill should ever drive those decisions, but because if they are on your list anyway, deciding early is what turns December into follow through rather than a scramble.
If any of this hit close to home, hit reply and tell me. The best issues of this newsletter start with a question or an idea from one of you, and those come straight to me. If you would rather reach me directly, I am easy to find at kindledplanning.com.
See you next month. Here if you need me in between.
Matt Curtin, CPA
P.S. Know someone with equity compensation or a business who would find this useful? Forward it their way, and they can subscribe in a few seconds at brief.kindledplanning.com.

